Busting more myths about the free trade deals we can do around the world...
The usual anti-Brexit groups, including the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance, the IFS with its Green Budget Citibank partner, and the King’s College economists who run the ESRC’s The UK in a...
View ArticleWhy a US-UK trade deal ought to mean us finally getting some sense from Brussels
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has already made it clear he will urgently look for a trade deal with President Trump. From a purely political viewpoint, this clearly makes sense in a world where the EU...
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A bad Withdrawal Agreement can be renegotiated in the context of post-Brexit...
In the below article, Patrick Minford writes in a personal capacity. In the latest discussions on the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration (WAPD), two views have emerged about the...
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How the Treasury, Bank of England and Civil Service have let us down over Brexit
Soon after graduate school I joined the Treasury as an economic adviser and worked alongside economists from the Bank of England and the rest of the Civil Service. We were proud to be bringing...
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A UK-US free trade deal could boost national output by £80 billion and cut UK...
The key promise of Brexit is free trade with the world, while we continue to trade freely via a trade agreement with the EU. In the internal Brexit debate, attention has been monopolised so far by our...
View ArticleWhy we should ignore the Treasury and Bank of England’s latest attempts to...
The Treasury and Bank of England are at it once again, trying to terrify us into abandoning Brexit. The Treasury has just produced its new report on all forms of Brexit including Theresa May’s...
View ArticleIt’s time the Chancellor came clean about his absurd Project Fear economic...
This weekend a large number of economists, businessmen, and politicians have signed a letter asking the Chancellor to publish the work underlying his Brexit forecasts. These forecasts have been leaked...
View ArticleWhy a World Trade Deal – Brexit on WTO terms – would be highly advantageous
Today Economists For Free Trade publish A World Trade Deal: The Complete Guide, namely a WTO-based exit from the EU. This has been made necessary by two things: the mess in our negotiations with the EU...
View ArticleThe public finances tell the tale of the steadily improving economy (despite...
It is now ten years since the financial crisis struck, gaining ferocity in September 2008 with the collapse of Lehman. Recession began in 2008 with a fall in GDP of 0.5%, followed by a fall of 4.2% in...
View ArticleThe threat of post-Brexit border friction is fiction from Big Business
Big manufacturing businesses have good reasons to stay in the EU. They get high levels of protection against international competition, they dominate the EU regulative process through their lobbying...
View ArticleCabinet ministers should be relishing the chance to spend the Brexit dividend
The Civil Service and their allies in the CBI, the IFS and so forth – all of them united against Brexit – are determined to convince this Government that Brexit will be a disaster, in effect...
View ArticleWhy a WTO-based exit from the EU is best for the UK
Rational debate and the movement of opinion swayed by facts and analysis has always been at the centre of our parliamentary affairs. As a nation we want issues to be decided by this rational process....
View ArticleHow the Civil Service has misled us about the costs of Brexit and the Customs...
The Civil Service has recently produced a ‘Cross-Whitehall Brexit Analysis’ arguing that a Brexit in which the UK leaves the EU Customs Union and establishes Free Trade Agreements with the EU and...
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How Brexit warped the minds of otherwise sane economists
Recently, the forecasting record of the Economists for Free Trade has come under fire in the FT from Chris Giles (‘Growth and Brexit- four lessons’), with the assertion that it has been worse than that...
View ArticleThe economic consensus on Brexit has got it all wrong
My new Politeia paper reviews the economics of the trade deal that will be struck between the UK and the EU under the international legal order of the WTO. I take the view that what will be agreed must...
View ArticleEven the new Civil Service approach seems to show the benefit of Free Trade...
The Civil Service reportedly has redone the Treasury’s Brexit long-term forecasts with a new approach, so say numerous leaks via Buzzfeed and elsewhere. ‘Officials believe the methodology for the new...
View ArticleWhitehall’s leaked Brexit forecasts are clearly based on outdated trade models
Free trade with the world or free trade with Europe? That is the question! Or so the latest Buzzfeed-leaked report from the civil service would have us believe. The report has examined, it would appear...
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Brexit is already shaping the economy for the better
Conveniently for Consensus economists, the mandatory end-of-year reviews of 2016 and 2017 never included the forecasts they made in August 2016 at the height of their panic over Brexit. The 2016...
View ArticleHow Brexit will reinvigorate the British economy
In the Economists for Free Trade ‘Budget for Brexit’ launching this week, we proclaim a heresy: Brexit will be good for the British economy. Our in depth research reveals that Brexit will speed up...
View ArticleNo deal is better than the best deal we could strike with the EU (and they’re...
No deal is actually the best deal. Is that a most ingenious paradox? No, this is hard-headed calculation from Cardiff models of trade and the economy, based on many years of research. Our ‘Remoaner’...
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